Why We Keep Chasing Shadows: The Two-Week Budget Panic Cycle

Every year, as the Budget approaches, I watch the same pattern unfold.

Whispers begin, headlines speculate, markets twitch and conversations turn gloomy. Then, the moment the Chancellor sits down, the whole thing resets. As if the previous few weeks of anxiety never happened.

It’s a familiar ritual: worry, brace, overreact… then carry on as before.

I’ve been in business long enough, since 1988. To have seen it play out time and time again. Election after election, Budget after Budget. When I stop to think about it, that’s almost forty Budgets. Forty cycles of nerves, speculation and second-guessing. Weeks of unease each time. Add them all together and you realise how much time we have lost, how much collective energy we’ve spent worrying about things that, more often than not, made very little difference in the end.

A distinctly British habit

It might feel like a uniquely British quirk, but it isn’t. Markets everywhere wobble before big fiscal announcements. In the U.S., investors hesitate before presidential elections; in Europe, similar caution follows leadership changes and budget statements.

But the British version has its own rhythm. Fuelled by tradition, tabloid conjecture and a national fondness for talking ourselves into worry. It’s part theatre, part reflex. We hold our breath, brace for the worst and then realise that most of it was just noise.

Why do we do it?

We’re creatures of habit and the anticipation of change is often more unsettling than the change itself. The truth is, the Budget rarely transforms anyone’s daily life overnight. Most of what’s announced is expected, already priced in, or phased in slowly.

And yet, for at least two weeks before we fret, second-guess and pause decisions. More importantly for business, we spend nothing! Only to find, that soon after, that everything looks much as it did before.

When I think of how many of these cycles I’ve lived through. How many conversations, headlines and forecasts, it’s staggering. You could measure it in months, maybe even years, of life spent on hold.

Breaking the cycle

Here’s the pattern I see every year: rumours build, sentiment softens, people hesitate, markets dip… then, almost on cue, confidence builds.

If the outcome is so often the same, why keep joining the dance?

I’ve learned to treat these moments for what they are, just that: moments. They pass. Fundamentals don’t change because of headlines. Good businesses adapt. Good investments endure and good people carry on.

Seeing it for what it is

After nearly forty years of running Sportarm, I’ve learned that perspective is everything.

Yes, taxes may rise, they usually do in one form or another but I’m not about to lose sleep over it and neither should you.

We live, work and prosper in one of the most stable, well-regulated economies in the world. That stability comes at a price and it’s one worth paying.

I’d rather stay focused on what I can control: quality, relationships, experience and service. When others hold their breath, I prefer to keep moving. When sentiment dips, that’s often when opportunities appear.

Confidence, quiet, steady confidence, is the most valuable commodity of all time.

A final thought

As Budget Day approaches, the headlines will do what they always do. The speculation will build, the commentary will swirl and then life will carry on.

I choose not to be a slave to the cycle and I suspect most of you won’t be either. Because when you look back, you realise that time spent worrying is time you never get back and there’s far too much life to live to waste it chasing shadows.

Kevin